More than 40% of Bulgarians Would Vote, Right-of-Center Government Possible, Survey

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More than 40% of Bulgarians Would Vote, Right-of-Center Government Possible, Survey

If parliamentary elections were held today, 40.3 per cent of Bulgarians would vote and they are decided in their choice, the Sova Harris Agency found in a nationally representative public opinion survey conducted between May 28 and June 3, 2008, cited by BTA.

The forthcoming campaign will target precisely the 15.9 per cent who say that they will vote, too, but are yet undecided, said Sova Harris Director Vassil Tonchev.

GERB now enjoys 24.3 per cent voters' support, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 14.2 per cent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 6.1 per cent (as usual), the Ataka Party 5.4 per cent, and the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) 3.8 per cent.

Tonchev noted that the UDF stands a strong chance of making it to the next parliament, considering the redistribution of votes among those voting, from which the UDF would get around 6 per cent.

For the time being, GERB is the leading political force, nearly 10 per cent ahead of the BSP.

If the Simeon II National Movement (SNM) decides to coalesce with the MRF, the otherwise stable indicators of the MRF may shift. On the other hand, a campaign coalition is the only chance of an SNM presence in the next legislature, Tonchev reasoned.

He argued that if the UDF does not meet the electoral threshold and GERB is the top vote getter, it will be left with no choice other than coalescing with the BSP and with the possible Liberal Alliance (MRF + SNM). The BSP may perform better if it manages to persuade people until the end of the term in office of the three-party ruling coalition that its rule was a success. According to Tonchev, this will be a difficult task because there are external factors affecting the success of the term. Sova Harris assumes that, judging from the results of the survey, a right-of-center government is likely to be formed after the elections.

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