NSI: Total Business Climate Indicator Down 2.2 pp in June

NSI: Total Business Climate Indicator Down 2.2 pp in June

In June 2008 the total business climate indicator decreased by 2.2 percentage points as compared to the previous month, due to more moderate managers assessment and expectations from all sectors surveyed by the NSI - industry, construction, retail trade and service sector.

Despite the decline, the economic conjecture in the country remains favorable - the indicator was only by 5.8 percentage points under its long-term maximum registered in February - March 2007.

Industry. The composite indicator of business climate in the industry sector decreased by 0.7 percentage points in comparison with May. Managers assessments about the present and expected business situation of industrial enterprises remained favorable.

The uncertain economic environment, the insufficient domestic demand, the weakness in the economic laws and the shortage of labor force were the factors, limiting the activity of the enterprises in June (all pointed by about a quarter of them).

25.2% of the enterprises expect selling prices in the sector to raise in the next 3 months, against 14.3% in May.

Construction. In June 2008 the economic conjuncture in construction remained favorable.

Managers expect production activity over the next 3 months to stay at present levels.

Among the reasons, limiting the activity of enterprises, the greatest weight continued to have the competition in the branch, the prices of materials, the uncertain economic environment and the shortage of labor force.

In June, as in May, a big share of the construction entrepreneurs (over 40%) expected an increase of selling prices in the branch.

Retail trade. In June 2008 the composite indicator of business climate in retail trade dropped by 5.8 percentage points, due to more moderate retailers’ expectations about the business situation of enterprises. Opinions have shifted from “better” towards “preserving the same” business situation.

The June survey registered a raised volume of sales over the last 3 months and the expectations over the next 3 months were for the volume to remain unchanged (55.7% of enterprises) or to increase (39.7%).

As main factors limiting the activity of enterprises in June, managers pointed the competition in the branch, the insufficient demand and the uncertain economic environment.”

Retailers’ assessments and expectations as regards the selling prices were in the upward tendency over the next 3 months.

Service sector. The composite indicator “business climate in service sector” kept its relatively high level (50.9%) in June 2008, although it is by 1.3 percentage points down compared to May.
62.8% of managers expect improvement in the business situation in the sector in the next 6 months and 34.1% think it will stay unchanged.

Competition continues to have the greatest weight among factors limiting the activity of service sector enterprises (pointed out by 60.6% of them).

63.9% of managers expect selling prices to increase in the coming months.

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