Bulgaria will sustain an annual population loss of 40,000 through natural decrease at the end of 2007, according to National Statistical Institute (NSI) figures cited Tuesday at a conference on Bulgarian population aging. Live births are expected to reach 74,000 at the end of this year, while deaths will total 115,000. The average age is 41.4 years, and life expectancy is 72.6 years.

NSI statistics put Bulgaria's population at 7,679,000 at the end of 2006, down from 8,985,844 in 1988. One million - mainly young - people have left the country over the last twenty years, hence the rising average age of the population, Bulgarian Red Cross President Hristo Grigorov said. Currently, there are 2.5 million "older" people (age boundary not specified) in the country - roughly a third of the population.

In comparison, the ratio of working people to retired people in the EU for 2005 was 4 to 1, independent consultant Andrew Humphreys said. By 2010, two working people are expected to maintain every two retirees, while by 2030 Europe is expected to have 18 million less young residents and 34.7 million octogenarians, Humphreys said.

Deputy Labor and Social Policy Minister Baki Hyusseinov pointed to social exclusion and the lack of a working mechanism for social reintegration of the elderly as a key problem for the country's aging population. Ministry expert Dragomir Draganov explained that 27 per cent of over-75s are on the edge of poverty. By October 2007, there were a mere 16 day centers for the elderly nationwide, 27 for elderly people with disabilities, 36 for social rehabilitation, and 43 sheltered housing, Meglena Vesselinova of the Labor Ministry said.