Is 999.99 Points The Bottom for SOFIX?
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On Tuesday the blue chips indicator SOFIX closed below 1,000 points for the first time since October 3.
Is this the bottom for SOFIX? Profit.bg asked three market experts what they though and here is what they told us:
Geno Tonev, portfolio manager, Ug Market Management Jsc
In view of the psychological effect of a plunge below 1,000, we should expect a further decline as investors may panic. There has been no panic so far, but if SOFIX slides again, that would spark massive sell-offs and even if they are not that massive, it would still hurt, taking into consideration BSE's low liquidity.
Many are selling right now. Every time the market tries to go up, the bear pressure strengthens.
On the other hand, my personal opinion is that we will not see a new low by the end of the month. I will not be surprised if the index climbs to 1080 -1090 points in the short term, before it goes down again.
Daniel Dimitrov, portfolio manager, Real Finance Asset Management Jsc
On Tuesday SOFIX fell below 1,000 points for the first time since October 3. Even though the index closed the next session above the 1,000, the bulls are hardly maintaining the level.
The low turnovers of the past weeks are showing that investors are unwilling to enter the market even at the current attractive prices. We are seeing a tendency among intermediaries to use iceberg orders in blue chis trading.
The banking sector (an important component in the index) is enduring serious losses. Some other positions (such as Orgachim) suffered serious sell-offs, following decisions taken by their general meetings. Good H1 reports managed to narrow the losses of some companies, but failed to boost their market capitalizations.
As we enter the summer vacations seasons, traded volumes are sharply falling, which makes sudden shifts very possible. Despite that, I expect SOFIX to stay around the 1,000 points in the weeks to come.
After FED's decision to keep rates in the US unchanged, the global markets made significant gains, but if they start going down again, SOFIX may hit new lows. Declining commodity prices on the other hand, may reverse the trend on foreign markets, as well as on BSE.
Veselin Morov, broker, Naba Invest
Trade in the past several weeks has been characterized by low turnovers and institutional investors' support for some of the most liquid blue chips (important components in SOFIX). This kept the index's fluctuations in narrow range and is so far restraining the negative trend. However, the lack of capital inflow makes a positive movement very unlikely.
The plunge below the psychological 1,000 points is an indicator of the market's unattractiveness amid the global uncertainty.
It is difficult to make short-term prognoses, because of the low liquidity of the local bourse.
Next month will give us an opportunity to see if indeed the theory that a strong bear market is always followed by a reversal of the trend is true. In our case, it would have a rather corrective effect, because of the lack of capital to prompt buying.
*This article expresses the personal opinions of the people quoted and does not recommend buying/selling stock.
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