Fragmentation of political space continues, sociologist Tsvetozar Tomov of the Scala Agency commented on bTV.

The results of GERB and Coalition for Bulgaria in Sunday's European elections are similar to their showing in the previous elections. "It turned out that the anti-government vote cannot focus on a single opposition party," Tomov noted.

In his opinion, the problem for the July 5 national parliamentary elections is whether the vote against the three-party ruling coalition will be dispersed among many small parties or will be pooled by GERB. "The first option is the likelier, which means that the fragmentation of political space continues," the sociologist said.

Speaking on bTV, sociologist Andrei Raichev of BBSS Gallup International said he was surprised that eight parties have crossed the 4 per cent threshold [sufficient for allocation of seats in the National Assembly; the threshold for the European Parliament is 5.88 per cent]. The showing of Leader was another serious surprise, according to Tsvetozar Tomov of the Scala Agency: "nobody expected it." Raichev attributes the high percentage to the mobilization of the workers employed by Leader founder Hristo Kovachki and to the personal charisma and popularity of the party's leading candidate Emil Koshloukov.

Commenting on exit poll results of the June 7 European elections in Bulgaria, Boryana Dimitrova of Alpha Research said on Bulgarian National Television (BNT) that 39 per cent of the votes of people older than 50 went to the Socialist-led Coalition for Bulgaria (CfB). Second in this age group is GERB with 17 per cent. GERB dominate heavily among the middle-aged (35 to 50 years) with 28 per cent and the youngest with 29 per cent. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), too, has a young electorate. Ataka and the Right, too, are well represented in the 18-22-year age brackets.

In rural areas, MRF dominate with 35 per cent, followed by CfB with 22 per cent. In the cities, GERB dominate with 27-31 per cent, followed by CfB and the Right.

Dimitrova said Sofia presents "a very interesting picture" (adding that the final results might change that): GERB gets 29 per cent and the Blue Coalition 23 per cent. Support for two Right-wing parties - the Blue Coalition of Democrats for Strong Bulgaria and Union of Democratic Forces - has not been as strong in a long time, commented Dimitrova. She added that the coalition has clearly energized the Right. Third comes CfB with 19 per cent, and the National Movement for Surge and Stability did well, too.

"The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the MRF are at one pole of the vote, and the Blue Coalition and GERB at the other," political scientist Ivan Krastev commented.

He noted that the National Movement for Surge and Stability (NMSS) managed to distance itself on time from the three-party ruling coalition, which affected its results favourably. As to the opinions that the European elections in Bulgaria are not European, he commented that this phenomenon is not confined to Bulgaria but is a fact Europewide and is a problem of the EU.

Krastev expects the polarization of Sunday's vote to escalate in the run-up to the national parliamentary elections. He expressed the hope that this will lead to a steady government.

Political scientist Vladimir Shopov singled out the Euro-Left's failure to win the debate about the global economic crisis as the highlight of election day in Europe.

He also stressed the strengthening of the positions of "Euroskeptic" parties.

"We are witnessing a new phenomenon in Bulgarian politics: an organized, controlled corporate vote, which was exercised above all in favour of the coalition between LEADER and the New Time," Transparency International-Bulgaria (TI-Bulgaria) Board of Directors Chairman Ognyan Minchev commented on Bulgarian National Radio.

"The controlled vote: pressuring factory and office workers at enterprises to vote for a particular party, surpasses the problem with vote buying," TI-Bulgaria Executive Director Diana Kovatcheva said, quoted by "Dnevnik" daily.

"In areas like Kyustendill, Bobovdol, Plovdiv, Haskovo and Pernik, our experts found attempts to exert pressure on voters to go to the polls," she added. As she put it, "people were threatened that, unless they vote, they would be fired."

"We have calculated an index of the controlled vote," sociologist Antonii Gulubov told "Dnevnik." He specified that the index gauges not only vote buying but also "non-free voting: where your job and your business security depend on whether you vote." "If we assume that 0 is the maximum dependent vote and 10 is the maximum free vote, the average country index we measure is 5.63," Gulubov explained. He added that according to the surveys, 16.5 per cent of all those who cast ballots can be described as dependent. "These are approximately 360,000 people," he noted.

Experts see these data as alarming, because they suggest that a very large percentage of people are unfree in their own political choice. "Their influence on the general political process cannot be underestimated," they warned.

According to Minchev, minority groups' vote buying techniques are being refined. He specified that in Plovdiv, Shoumen, Kyustendil and Vidin, groups of voters have been led by certain people on several occasions in both directions, but they have not been seen to enter the voting section and then the nearby shop or club.

Source: BTA