Between 3.5 million and 3.7 million voters will go to the polls in the July 5 parliamentary elections, the Director of the MBMD polling agency Miroslava Radeva predicted at a news conference in the BTA National Press Club. This level may be surpassed, depending on the campaign in the last week, Radeva said. This will mean a turnout of some 55 per cent, according to Central Electoral Commission data about the number of voters.

The supporters of the GERB party are increasing, but with other parties there are no significant changes. The difference between GERB and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) will be between 9 and 10 per cent, Radeva predicted.

According to the agency's forecast, at this stage GERB is expected to garner between 28 and 32 per cent of the vote and to be represented by 90 to 95 MPs in the event of eight parties in the 240-seat Parliament, or by 100 to 107 MPs in the event of five parties in Parliament.

The BSP-dominated Coalition for Bulgaria is expected to be backed by 17 to 22 per cent of voters and to win 50 to 55 seats in the event of eight parties in Parliament, or 56 to 62 seats in the event of five parties in Parliament.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) will win 9 to 12 per cent of the vote, which means 28 to 30 seats in the event of eight parties in Parliament, or 32 to 34 seats in the event of five parties in Parliament.

Ataka will garner 8 to 10 per cent of the vote, which means 23 to 24 seats in the event of eight parties in Parliament, or 25 to 27 seats in the event of five parties in Parliament.

The so called minor contenders - the National Movement for Surge and Stability (NMSS), Order, Lawfulness and Justice (OLJ), and Leader - will step over the 4 per cent threshold for entry into

Parliament, the sociologist commented. There is some uncertainty about the NMSS electorate, show surveys of MBMD. NMSS, OLJ and Leader may receive 4 to 5 per cent support each, which means 8 to 10 seats in Parliament.

According to Radeva, GERB always shows worse results in elections than the data of preliminary surveys. This is most likely due to the fact that the party structures are insufficiently motivated to work, she commented. GERB will lose 2 to 3 per cent in the majority vote, according to data of the survey. The fact that the party does not offer sufficiently popular personalities may also reduce its potential, Radeva commented.

In the elections to the European Parliament on June 7, the main reasoning for the voters' choice was the support for a given party (for 64 per cent of voters). Another 21 per cent of voters made their choice depending on who was the leader on the candidates' list, and 15 per cent preferred "the lesser evil".

Some 90 per cent of those who voted in the European Parliament elections will vote in the same way in the national parliament elections, and 8 per cent will vote differently, the MBMD data

show. Two per cent of those who went to the polls say that they will stay out of the forthcoming elections. Radeva stressed, however, that some 1 million people who did not vote in the European elections are planning to vote in the national parliament elections.

In respect of the majority vote, on the basis of the vote for the European Parliament, the predictions are that in eight constituencies BSP is in a strong position with the support of MRF, in six constituencies the leader is GERB, in another eight constituencies the situation is a tie, and for MRF there are eight indisputable constituencies, in four of them with the support of BSP.

According to MBMD, at the European elections MRF did not show its real potential, winning 363,000 votes, but at the forthcoming national parliament elections the party will demonstrate its potential by winning some 500,000 votes. In 2005, MRF garnered 459,000 votes, Radeva said.

Source: BTA