Turkey Raises Inflation Target
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Turkey's central bank asked the government to nearly double its official inflation target for next year and for higher targets for the following two years, highlighting the difficulties emerging economies are facing with rising food and energy prices, the Wall Sreet Journal reports.
After Turkey's statistics office reported Tuesday that inflation rose to a double-digit pace in May, the country's central bank said Wednesday that it has asked the government to raise its 4.0% inflation target for 2009 to 7.5%, and for higher targets through the end of 2011. A government decision is pending.
The inflation target for this year will remain at 4.0%, even though analysts say there is little hope that it will be met.
The revision was a "technical necessity," central-bank governor Durmus Yilmaz said in a letter to the government. He said inflation was expected to stray from the former target for a long period of time due to factors beyond the control of monetary policy.
Several other Central and Eastern European central banks may follow suit as they grapple with slowing economic growth and commodities-driven inflation, said Simon Quijano-Evans, an economist for Unicredit in Vienna.
"This is a reality check, and although it strongly dents policy credibility, it also stands as a courageous move to correct targets that were too stringent from the beginning," Mr. Quijano-Evans said of Turkey's decision.
Inflation in Romania, Poland and Hungary is well above the targets set by the central banks of those countries, although policy makers are largely optimistic that price pressures will subside by the end of next year. South Africa faces a similar situation.
Turkey's decision will carry a price. International investors who worry about a looser approach are already demanding a higher yield premium for Turkish debt.
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