An analysis of the expected electricity network development until 2020 prepared by the National Electricity Company (NEK) shows that a new nuclear power plant at Belene will not be needed to meet domestic demand. The Belene project makes sense only if sale of electricity is contracted with other countries, Dimcho Kunev, head of NEK's Forecasts, Development and Research Department, said in a presentation at a forum on "Energy at the Threashold of Liberalization". The forum was on the programme of the Bulgarian Economic Forum.

The NEK research unit has looked at two scenarios for future energy consumption. In one, the national economy grows without a growth of energy production - due to the introduction of new technologies. In this scenario no new power generating capacities will be needed.

In the other scenario, the energy-saving technologies will take slower to become wide-spread and energy consumption will grow by an annual average of 1.4 per cent. In this case until 2020 Bulgaria will consume some 40 billion kWh electricity a year, said Kunev.

The year 2011 will see the commissioning of 670 MW of power generating capacity at the AES Gulubovo thermo-electric power plant and another 80 MW at the Tsankov Kamuk hydro-power plant. 1,700 MW in wind farms will be commissioned until 2020, as well as 300 MW in solar plants and 100 MW in biomass plants, plus the Belene N-plant.

If all of this truly happens, in 2020 Bulgaria will produce 50-52 billion kWh of electricity and will have a surplus of some 10-12 billion kWh, according to the NEK analysis. This is NEK's reason to believe that the Belene N-plant project is not needed on the domestic market and make economic sense only if the electricity is exported, Kunev explained.

He also said that the commissioning of the 1,000-MW Units 5 and 6 of the Kozloduy N-plant in 1987 and 1991 transformed this country from a net importer of electricity from Russia to an exporter of electricity, with an annual export of 5-8 billion kWh, Kunev said. From the beginning of this year to the present moment, Bulgaria has exported a total of over 6 billion kWh.

The country's only N-plant has a steady share of some 35 per cent in the electricity output. Water power plants generate 10 per cent of the electricity, or some 6-8 per cent on dry years and 12 per cent on rainy years. Solar plants and wind farms have a negligible share. In 2009, wind farms produced a mere 6.6 per cent of the electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES).

The preferential rates for electricity from RES has brought about a boom in investment interest in this business and applications for connection to the power grid total 12,200 MW and to the power distribution companies another 2,600 MW.

The contracts for construction of new RES plants this year are for a total of 1,543 MW.

Source: BTA